Probability
NCERT Class 12 Mathematics Chapter 7: Probability (Pages 406–438)
Probability at a Glance
CBSE
Class 12
Mathematics
Mathematics Part - II
7
406–438
7 study resources
Probability is a chapter in the CBSE Class 12 Mathematics syllabus from Mathematics Part - II. This chapter hub brings together revision notes, practice questions, worksheets, flashcards, formula sheet to help students learn, practice, and revise Probability effectively.
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NCERT Class 12 Mathematics Chapter 7: Probability (Pages 406–438)
CBSE
Class 12
Mathematics
Mathematics Part - II
7
406–438
7 study resources
Download the Probability revision guide with key points, summaries, and quick revision notes for CBSE Class 12 Mathematics.
Key Points
Probability Definition
Probability quantifies uncertainty, expressed as P(E) = number of favorable outcomes / total outcomes.
Sample Space (S)
S defines all possible outcomes of an experiment. Example with coin toss: S = {H, T}.
Event Types
Events are subsets of S. A simple event contains one outcome; a compound event includes multiple.
Complementary Events
The complement of event E, denoted E', is defined as E' = S - E. P(E') = 1 - P(E).
Conditional Probability
P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) quantifies the probability of E given F has occurred, provided P(F) ≠ 0.
Multiplication Rule
P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F|E) calculates the joint probability of E and F occurring together.
Independent Events
Events E and F are independent if P(E|F) = P(E). This means the occurrence of one does not affect the other.
Addition Rule
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) calculates the probability of either A or B occurring.
Bayes' Theorem
Used for finding reverse probabilities: P(Ei|A) = [P(Ei) * P(A|Ei)] / P(A) for partition events Ei.
Law of Total Probability
P(A) = Σ [P(Ei) * P(A|Ei)] for a partition {Ei} of the sample space S.
Random Variable
A random variable is a function that assigns a number to each outcome in a sample space. Example: X = number of heads.
Probability Distribution
Describes the likelihood of all possible values of a random variable, including discrete and continuous types.
Binomial Distribution
Describes the number of successes in n independent Bernoulli trials, with P(X=k) = (n choose k) * (p^k) * (1-p)^(n-k).
Expected Value (Mean)
E(X) = Σ [x * P(X=x)] gives the average outcome for discrete random variables.
Variance
Defines the spread of a random variable: Var(X) = E(X²) - [E(X)]².
Common Misconceptions
Not all events are independent; disjoint events cannot happen at the same time.
Frequent Applications
Probability principles apply in diverse fields, including finance, insurance, and data science for risk assessment.
Expectation in Real Life
Used in making decisions under uncertainty, e.g., predicting sales or project outcomes.
Simulation in Probability
Monte Carlo methods help visualize probability through random sampling, useful in complex scenarios.
Practice Problems
Solve numerous problems to master concepts, particularly conditional probabilities and distributions.
Summary of Key Formulas
Keep handy: P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A), P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B), and E(X) and Var(X) definitions.
Practice important questions and exam-style problems from Probability. These questions cover key topics from the CBSE Class 12 Mathematics syllabus.
How to practice: Start with the questions below to test your understanding of Probability. Use the revision guide to review concepts you find difficult, then come back and retry the questions for better retention.
What is the probability of getting at least two heads when tossing three fair coins?
In an experiment of rolling a fair die, what is the probability of rolling a number greater than 4?
If event A occurs with probability 0.6 and event B is independent of A with a probability of 0.5, what is the probability of both A and B occurring?
What is the probability that a randomly selected card from a standard deck is a spade or a heart?
What is the conditional probability P(A|B) if P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1?
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, what is the probability of A and B occurring together?
When flipping two coins, what is the probability that at least one coin shows tails?
A box contains 3 red and 2 green balls. What is the probability of picking a green ball?
What is the probability of NOT rolling a number greater than 3 on a fair die?
In a random experiment, if P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.6, what is P(A or B) if A and B are independent?
If a card is drawn from a deck, what is the probability that it is a face card?
Given the probabilities P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1, what is P(A|B)?
In a bag containing 5 white and 5 black balls, what is the probability of drawing one white and one black ball in succession without replacement?
What is the probability of getting a sum of 8 when rolling two six-sided dice?
If a box contains 4 red, 3 blue, and 2 green balls, what is the probability of drawing a red ball first and then a blue ball second, replacing the first?
What does the notation P(E ∩ F) represent?
If P(E) = 0.5 and P(F|E) = 0.2, what is P(E ∩ F)?
In an experiment, if A and B are independent events, which equation holds true?
What is the probability of drawing two black balls from an urn containing 10 black and 5 white balls without replacement?
If P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.5, what is P(A ∩ B) when A and B are independent?
In a roll of a die twice, what is the probability that both rolls are even numbers?
Three cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that the first two are kings and the third is an ace?
If P(E) = 0.3 and P(F) = 0.6, what is P(E ∩ F) when events E and F are not independent?
For two events E and F, if P(E) = 0.1 and P(E ∪ F) = 0.6, what must be true about P(F)?
What is the probability of drawing two aces consecutively from a standard deck without replacement?
If two events are mutually exclusive, which is true about their intersection?
What does the outcome P(E ∩ F) imply if both events have zero probability?
When extending the multiplication rule to three events, what is the correct form?
What is the formula for calculating conditional probability P(E|F)?
If P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.5, what is P(A|B) if A and B are independent?
In a card game, what is the probability of drawing a heart given that a red card has been drawn?
What is the conditional probability of event A given event B when P(A ∩ B) = 0.1 and P(B) = 0.25?
If P(A) = 0.6 and P(B|A) = 0.4, what is P(A ∩ B)?
What is P(A ∪ B | C) if P(A|C) = 0.5, P(B|C) = 0.2, and P(A ∩ B|C) = 0.1?
If two events are independent, what can we say about P(A ∩ B)?
In a family with two children, what is the conditional probability both are girls given that at least one is a girl?
What is the probability of getting a sum of 4 when rolling two dice?
If a die is rolled, what is the conditional probability of rolling a 1 given that an odd number has been rolled?
What is the conditional probability that event A occurs given that event B occurs, if P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2?
What is the conditional probability of obtaining a 3 on a die given that the roll is odd?
Two coins are tossed, what is the conditional probability of getting at least one head given that at least one tail is obtained?
If the probability of event A occurring is 0.4 and the probability of event A given event B is 0.5, what can be deduced about events A and B?
If P(A) = 0.8 and P(A|B) = 0.6, what is P(B) if A and B are independent?
If a test for a disease is 90% accurate, what is the probability that a person has the disease if they test positive, given that the overall disease prevalence is 0.1%?
If two events A and B are independent, which of the following represents the probability of both events occurring?
A factory produces three types of bolts with different rates of defects. If a bolt is found to be defective, what is the probability it was made by machine B?
A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head appears on the coin’ and B be the event ‘3 on the die’. Are A and B independent?
A doctor arrives late to an appointment. If the transport methods are varied, what is the probability he came by train?
If P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.5 for independent events A and B, what is P(A ∩ B)?
A man speaks the truth 75% of the time. If he claims he rolled a six on a die, what is the probability it is actually a six?
Given that P(A) = 1/2 and P(B) = 1/3 for independent events A and B, what is P(A ∪ B)?
How do we obtain the probability of an event given a positive test result under Bayes' Theorem?
Which of the following pairs of events is independent?
If the probability of testing positive for a disease when one is actually sick is 0.95, but when one is not sick it is 0.1, what can be inferred using Bayes' Theorem?
What does it mean for events E and F to be independent?
What is Bayes' Theorem primarily used for?
If P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.4, and they are independent, what is P(B')?
In a scenario with two drugs, Drug A has 85% accuracy, while Drug B has 75%, what is crucial to consider with Bayes' Theorem?
Two dice are rolled. If A is the event that at least one die shows a 6 and B is the event that the sum is greater than 8, are A and B independent?
Given two events A and B, if A is a subset of B, how does Bayes' Theorem apply?
If the probability of event A occurring is 0.7 and the probability of event B occurring is 0.3, what is P(A ∩ B) if A and B are independent?
If you draw a card from a standard deck, what is the probability that it is a heart given that it is red?
Let E and F be events such that P(E) = 0.5 and P(E ∩ F) = 0.2. Are E and F independent?
In Bayesian analysis, what does the prior probability represent?
What is the probability of the complement of event A if A is independent with P(A) = 0.2?
What is the error in directly applying Bayes' Theorem without accounting for P(E)?
If two events E and F are such that P(E) = 1/4, P(F) = 1/2, and P(E ∩ F) = 1/8, are these events independent?
If event C occurs given events A and B, how can Bayes' Theorem be applied?
A box contains 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. If you draw two balls with replacement, what is the probability that both are red?
Which probability distribution is often connected with Bayes' Theorem?
What is the probability of getting at least one head when tossing two independent coins?
For two events A and B that are independent, how does it affect their Bayes' probabilities?
How does Bayes' Theorem refine initial probabilities based on new data?
Download and practice Probability worksheets to improve problem-solving accuracy and speed for CBSE Class 12 Mathematics exams.
This worksheet covers essential long-answer questions to help you build confidence in Probability from Mathematics Part - II for Class 12 (Mathematics).
Questions
Define conditional probability and provide its formula. Give a real-life example to illustrate conditional probability.
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. The formula for conditional probability is P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) where P(F) ≠ 0. An example is a scenario with two events: A being the event 'it is raining' and B being 'the ground is wet'. If it is known that it is raining (event F), the conditional probability of the ground being wet (event E) increases because rain causes the ground to become wet.
Explain the addition rule of probability. Provide an example that includes overlapping events.
The addition rule of probability states that for any two events A and B, the probability of A or B occurring is P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B). This adjustment accounts for the double-counting of the intersection of A and B. For example, if P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.3, with P(A ∩ B) = 0.1, then P(A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.3 - 0.1 = 0.7.
Discuss the multiplication rule of probability for independent events. Illustrate with an example.
The multiplication rule states that for two independent events A and B, the probability of both A and B occurring is P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B). For example, if the probability of rolling a 3 on one die is 1/6 and rolling a 4 on another die is also 1/6, the probability of rolling both a 3 and a 4 is (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36.
Define the term 'random variable' and differentiate between discrete and continuous random variables.
A random variable is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance. Discrete random variables take on a countable number of distinct values (e.g., the number of heads in 5 coin tosses), while continuous random variables can take on an infinite number of values within a given range (e.g., the height of students).
Explain the concept of independent events with an example.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other. For example, tossing a coin and rolling a die are independent events. The probability of getting heads on the coin toss and 4 on the die roll is P(Heads) * P(4) = (1/2) * (1/6) = 1/12.
What is the Binomial distribution? Provide a scenario where it applies.
The Binomial distribution models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, where each trial has two possible outcomes. For example, if you flip a coin 10 times and count the number of heads, that scenario can be modeled using a binomial distribution with n = 10 trials and p = 0.5 as the probability of success (getting heads).
Define Bayes' theorem and explain its application with an example.
Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions related to the event. It is expressed as P(Ei|A) = [P(A|Ei) * P(Ei)] / P(A). For example, if a test for a disease is 90% accurate (true positive) and the disease prevalence is 1%, we can use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that a person has the disease given a positive test result.
Illustrate the concept of expected value and its significance.
The expected value is the average of all possible values of a random variable, weighted by their probabilities. It provides a measure of the central tendency of the random variable. For example, in a game where you win $10 with a probability of 0.1 and lose $1 with a probability of 0.9, the expected value is E(X) = (10 * 0.1) + ((-1) * 0.9) = -$0.80, indicating an average loss.
What is the law of large numbers and how does it apply in probability?
The law of large numbers states that as the number of experiments increases, the sample mean (average) will converge to the expected value (population mean). For instance, flipping a fair coin many times will result in the proportion of heads approaching 0.5 (the theoretical probability) as the number of flips increases. This law reinforces the reliability of probability predictions over greater numbers of trials.
This worksheet challenges you with deeper, multi-concept long-answer questions from Probability to prepare for higher-weightage questions in Class 12.
Questions
Consider two boxes. Box I has 3 red and 4 black balls, and Box II has 5 red and 6 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from one of the boxes. If the ball is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from Box II? Use Bayes' Theorem to derive the solution.
Let E1 be choosing Box I, E2 be choosing Box II, and A be drawing a red ball. Then P(E1) = P(E2) = 1/2, P(A|E1) = 3/7, P(A|E2) = 5/11. By Bayes' theorem: P(E2|A) = (P(E2) * P(A|E2)) / (P(E1) * P(A|E1) + P(E2) * P(A|E2)) Substituting values gives: P(E2|A) = (1/2 * 5/11) / [(1/2 * 3/7) + (1/2 * 5/11)] = 5/11 / [(3/7 + 5/11) / 2] = ... (calculate for final answer).
A die is rolled twice. What is the conditional probability that at least one of the rolls is a six, given that the sum of the two rolls is 9?
Let E be the event 'at least one six' and F be 'sum is 9'. Outcomes for F are: (3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3). Favorable outcomes for E ∩ F are: (3,6) and (6,3). P(F) = 4/36 and P(E ∩ F) = 2/36. Then: P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) = (2/36) / (4/36) = ... = 1/2.
In a class of 30 students, 18 study Mathematics, 15 study Physics, and 10 study both subjects. What is the probability that a student chosen at random studies Mathematics given that he or she studies Physics?
Let A be studying Mathematics, B be studying Physics. We need P(A|B). The values are: P(A) = 18/30, P(B) = 15/30, P(A ∩ B) = 10/30. Using the formula: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = (10/30) / (15/30) = 10/15 = 2/3.
A family has two children. What is the probability that both children are girls given that at least one of them is a girl?
Let E be 'both children are girls', F be 'at least one child is a girl'. Possible outcomes are: GG, GB, BG, BB. Given F, the possible outcomes are GG, GB, BG. Favorable is GG. Thus: P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) = (1/4) / (3/4) = 1/3.
In an exam, a student is known to know the answer with probability 3/4 and guesses with probability 1/4. If the guessing has a success rate of 1/4, what is the probability that the student knew the answer given they answered correctly?
Let A be knowing the answer and C be answering correctly. Use Bayes' theorem: P(A|C) = (P(C|A)P(A)) / [P(C|A)P(A) + P(C|A')P(A')] P(C|A) = 1, P(C|A') = 1/4. Compute: P(A|C) = (1 * 3/4) / [(1 * 3/4) + (1/4 * 1/4)] = ...(substitute values to calculate).
A box contains 10 oranges and 5 apples. If two fruits are picked at random, what is the probability that both are apples?
Let A be selecting apples. Total ways to choose 2 fruits = C(15, 2), and ways to pick 2 apples = C(5, 2). Hence: P(A) = C(5, 2) / C(15, 2). Calculate: P(A) = (5! / (3!2!)) / (15! / (13!2!)) = ... (calculate final answer).
There are three bags. Bag X contains 2 white and 3 red balls, Bag Y contains 4 white and 1 red ball, and Bag Z contains 1 white and 4 red balls. If a ball is drawn and is found to be red, what is the probability that it was drawn from Bag Z?
Let A be drawing a red ball. Let E1, E2, E3 be events of choosing Bag X, Y, and Z respectively. Find: P(E1), P(E2), P(E3) = 1/3. Then, find P(A|E1), P(A|E2), P(A|E3). Use Bayes’ theorem: P(E3|A) = ... (substitute values accordingly).
A factory produces screws with 2 machines. Machine A produces 70% of screws, while Machine B produces 30%. The defect rates are 3% for A and 5% for B. If a screw is found to be defective, what is the probability it was produced by Machine A?
Let D be the event of 'defect' and E1, E2 be events of A and B. Calculate: P(D|E1), P(D|E2), P(E1), P(E2) and use Bayes' theorem: P(E1|D) = (P(E1)P(D|E1)) / [P(E1)P(D|E1) + P(E2)P(D|E2)] = ....
Two dice are thrown. What is the probability of getting a sum greater than 8 given that at least one die is a four?
Let E be 'sum > 8' and F be 'at least one die is 4'. Identify outcomes: F = {4,1}, {4,2}, {4,3}, {4,4}, {4,5}, {4,6}, {1,4}, {2,4}, {3,4}, {5,4}, {6,4}. Favorable outcomes: E ∩ F = {4,5}, {4,6}, {5,4}, {6,4}. Calculate: P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) =.. =>.
The final worksheet presents challenging long-answer questions that test your depth of understanding and exam-readiness for Probability in Class 12.
Questions
Consider a dice game where Player A wins if they roll a sum greater than 10 when rolling two dice, while Player B wins if they roll an even sum. Evaluate the conditional probabilities of A winning given that B has scored a sum of 6.
Break down the probabilities of both players' outcomes using conditional probability concepts. Assess the independent events involved and calculate the conditional probabilities based on the given conditions.
A factory produces widgets that have a 2% defect rate. If 4 widgets are sampled, determine the probability that exactly 2 of them are defective, given that each widget is independent of the others.
Use the binomial distribution formula to find the likelihood of 2 defects in a 4 widget sample. Provide reasoning on the independence of each widget.
A school has a 70% graduation rate. If 3 students are selected at random, find the probability that at least one of them will not graduate.
Utilize the complement rule of probability for this calculation. Use the graduation rate to determine the probability of a student not graduating.
Evaluate the probability of drawing two red cards from a standard deck of playing cards if the first card drawn is returned to the deck before drawing the second card.
Calculate the probability of drawing a red card in both selections with replacement. Use multiplication of independent probabilities.
In a bag containing 5 black, 3 white, and 2 red balls, if two balls are drawn without replacement, determine the probability that both are of the same color.
Evaluate the possible combinations for drawing balls of the same color and calculate using the conditional probabilities.
An event occurs with a probability of 0.3. If two independent trials are conducted, find the probability that the event occurs in at least one of the trials.
Utilize the complement rule to find the probability that the event does not occur in either trial, then subtract from 1.
A survey indicates that 60% of people like chocolate and 50% of them like vanilla. If a person likes vanilla, what is the probability that they also like chocolate?
Apply Bayes' theorem to determine the conditional probability of liking chocolate given vanilla preference.
If a person rolls two dice, what is the probability that the sum of the rolls is 5, given that at least one of the dice shows 2?
Set up a conditional probability scenario and evaluate the specific outcomes where this condition holds true.
Given three boxes: Box A contains 2 gold coins, Box B contains 1 gold and 1 silver, and Box C contains 2 silver coins. A box is selected and a coin is drawn at random, which turns out to be gold. What is the probability that it was drawn from Box A?
Use Bayes’ Theorem to calculate the desired probability, covering all paths leading to the event of drawing a gold coin.
In an experiment, a fair die is thrown twice. Find the probability that the second roll is a 3 given that the first roll is even.
Analyze the conditional outcomes of rolling an even number and how they impact the probability of the second roll being 3.
Use this Class 12 Mathematics Probability Formula Sheet for quick revision before school exams and CBSE exams. It brings together the important formulas, key concepts, and worked examples in one place so students can revise faster and download a printable PDF for offline study.
Important Formulas
P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) for P(F) ≠ 0
P(E|F) denotes the conditional probability of event E given that event F has occurred. It quantifies how the occurrence of F influences the likelihood of E.
P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F|E)
This formula describes the joint probability of events E and F occurring together, calculated as the probability of E and the probability of F given E.
P(E ∪ F) = P(E) + P(F) - P(E ∩ F)
This formula calculates the probability of either event E or F occurring, ensuring that both events are not double-counted.
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
P(E') represents the probability of the complement event of E, meaning E does not occur. Useful for simplifying calculations.
P(E|F) + P(E'|F) = 1
This property reflects that the total probability for all outcomes must sum to 1, showing that if F occurs, either E must occur or not occur.
P(A ∪ B | F) = P(A | F) + P(B | F) - P(A ∩ B | F)
This formula extends the addition rule to conditional probabilities, allowing the calculation of the probability of either A or B given F.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B|A)
It denotes the multiplication rule for the joint occurrence of events A and B, where A influences the occurrence of B.
If E and F are independent, P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F)
This defines the condition for independence between two events, where the occurrence of one does not impact the probability of the other.
P(A | B) = P(A) when A and B are independent
When events A and B are independent, the occurrence of B does not change the probability of A.
Total Probability: P(A) = Σ P(E_i) * P(A|E_i)
This theorem is used to compute the total probability of event A based on partition events E_i, ensuring comprehensive coverage of all possibilities.
Worked Examples
P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F)
Defines conditional probability of E given F.
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Probability of the complement of event E.
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Union of events formula.
P(E|F) + P(E'|F) = 1
Sum of probabilities of event E and its complement given F.
P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F|E)
Joint probability using conditional probability.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B) if A and B are independent
Product of probabilities for independent events.
P(E|F) + P(E'|F) = 1
Total probability of all outcomes given F.
P(A ∪ B | F) = P(A | F) + P(B | F) - P(A ∩ B | F)
Conditional addition rule.
P(A) = Σ P(E_i) * P(A|E_i)
Total probability theorem.
P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F|E) = P(F) * P(E|F)
Multiplication rule for joint events.
Explore More Probability Resources
Explore more chapter resources to strengthen your understanding and prepare for exams.
Explore key concepts of probability, including conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and the multiplication rule in this comprehensive chapter for Class 12 Mathematics.
Download worksheets, revision guides, formula sheets, and the official textbook PDF for Probability.
Probability Official Textbook PDF
Download the official NCERT/CBSE textbook PDF for Class 12 Mathematics.
Probability Revision Guide
Use this one-page guide to revise the most important ideas from Probability.
Probability Formula Sheet
Download the Probability formula sheet PDF with important formulas, worked examples, and quick revision support for exam preparation.
Probability Practice Worksheet
Solve basic and application-based questions from Probability.
Probability Mastery Worksheet
Work through mixed Probability questions to improve accuracy and speed.
Probability Challenge Worksheet
Try harder Probability questions that test deeper understanding.
Probability Question Bank
Download important questions and exam-style prompts from Probability.
Revise key terms and definitions from Probability with interactive flashcards. Quick recall practice for CBSE Class 12 Mathematics.
Practice Probability with Interactive Duels
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Challenge your classmates or test your individual retention on the core concepts of CBSE Class 12 Mathematics (Mathematics Part - II). Compete in speed-recall question rounds matched explicitly to the latest syllabus milestones for Probability.
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